All posts by tedlow

Featured, Self-Help Articles, Uncategorized

Tokenization valuation 101: challenges and common approaches

Tokenization, a process where real-world assets are represented by digital tokens on a blockchain, has emerged as a significant innovation in the financial sector. These tokens can represent a variety of assets, such as real estate, equities, commodities, or even intangible assets like intellectual property. The appeal of tokenization lies in its potential to enhance liquidity, transparency, and accessibility, allowing fractional ownership and more efficient trading of assets. However, tokenization also presents unique challenges, particularly in the realm of valuation.

  • One of the primary difficulties stems from the fundamental differences between traditional securities and tokens. While stocks and tokens might share similarities in valuation language, the underlying nature of these assets diverges significantly. For instance, the “market cap” of a token, calculated by multiplying the number of tokens in circulation by the token’s price, often leads to misconceptions. This method, borrowed from traditional equity markets, may obscure the intrinsic characteristics and value drivers specific to tokens, resulting in erroneous valuations.
  • Tokens, unlike traditional stocks, do not necessarily represent ownership in a company. Instead, they can serve various purposes within a blockchain ecosystem, such as acting as a medium of exchange, providing access to a particular service, or enabling governance participation. This multifaceted nature complicates the valuation process. For example, utility tokens like the UNI token of Uniswap are valued based on factors such as the adoption and usage of the underlying platform, the demand for the token for governance and rewards, and the future potential of the ecosystem. Such considerations make token valuation a speculative endeavour that requires a deep understanding of the specific use case and ecosystem dynamics.
  • Market volatility and liquidity are additional hurdles in token valuation. The crypto market is notorious for its price fluctuations, driven by factors like investor sentiment, macroeconomic trends, and regulatory news. These rapid changes can make it challenging to establish a stable and accurate value for tokens. Furthermore, the lack of liquidity in some token markets can lead to significant price disparities, complicating the valuation process.
  • Moreover, the absence of fundamental data and financial disclosures, which are typically available for traditional assets, poses another significant challenge. Evaluating the financial health and risks associated with token projects often requires analyzing user adoption, technological advancements, and community engagement, rather than relying on conventional financial metrics.
  • Regulatory uncertainty also plays a crucial role in token valuation. The evolving legal landscape for cryptocurrencies and tokens means that regulatory changes can significantly impact token values. Compliance with existing laws and anticipation of future regulatory developments are essential considerations for accurate valuation.

Common Token Valuation Approaches

Various methods, including market analysis, future earnings potential, and token usefulness within ecosystems, help determine the true worth of a cryptocurrency token.

  1. Market-Based Valuation: This approach takes into account the many elements and dynamics of the token’s underlying market. It involves:
    • Comparable Token Analysis: Evaluating and interpreting text data in a consistent manner to understand the content and qualities of the token.
    • Token Trading Volume and Liquidity Analysis: Assessing the volume of token transactions, the relative ease of buying and selling, and the general state of the market.
  2. Income-Based Valuation: This methodology considers the asset’s predicted future cash flows and income, reflecting the token’s earnings potential.
    • Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Method: Calculating the intrinsic value of a token by discounting expected future cash flows to their present value.
    • Capitalization of Earnings (CapE) Method: Valuing tokens based on their future earnings potential by applying a suitable capitalization ratio to projected earnings.
  3. Utility-Based Valuation: This approach prioritizes a token’s usefulness and potential utility within its ecosystem.
    • User Adoption and Usage Analysis: Examining how widely the token is used within its ecosystem, including the total number of users and transaction frequency.
    • Decentralisation and Network Effects Analysis: Assessing the level of decentralisation and the network effects that arise as more people join the network, enhancing the token’s value.

In this complex and evolving landscape, Gifted Group, as an expert witness financial valuator, brings a comprehensive approach to token valuation. Our deep understanding of both traditional financial markets and the unique attributes of blockchain technology enables them to navigate the intricacies of token valuation effectively.

Featured, News

SGX advises companies to strengthen their valuation process.

Recently, the Singapore Exchange Regulation has enlisted the help of the professional body of valuers, to bring its expertise to bear when listed companies face questions over the value of assets in potential deals.

Under a memorandum of understanding signed between SGX RegCo and the Institute of Valuers and Appraisals, Singapore (IVAS), the exchange can turn to the institute for expert advice and support on matters related to business valuation.

This is inline with tougher standards that SGX hopes to implement to give investors trust and confidence in the Singapore public markets.

Whether you are a public company who is interested in having a strong trusting relationship with your shareholders or a private company intending to go on a successful fund raise, you could benefit from a regular professional valuation audit.

To find out more on how we can help your company grow, please feel free to contact us through our contact page or attend one of our valuation seminars.




Relevant articles:-
SGX RegCo teams up with professional body of valuers to tackle problem of questionable valuations (The Edge)

SGX RegCo teams up with professional body of valuers to tackle problem of questionable valuations (Yahoo Finance)

SGX mulls tougher auditing rules to intensify oversight (SBR)
SGX hones ability to scrutinise asset valuations, pressures auditors — will it close the ‘trust deficit’? (The Edge)

Chinese Articles, Featured, News

新加坡交易所建议企业严格估值过程

近日，新加坡交易所（Singapore Exchange “以下称新交所”）的监管条款得到了专业评估机构的帮助，用以在上市公司潜在的交易中面临资产价值的问题时，发挥其专长。

根据新交所与新加坡估价师与评估学会（IVAS）签署的谅解备忘录，新交所可向该学会寻求有关企业估值事宜的专家意见和支持。

此与新交所期望实施的进一步严格的标准相一致，该标准旨在让投资者对新加坡公共市场产生信任和信心。

无论你是一家是希望与股东建立牢固信任关系的上市公司，或是希望成功融资的私人公司，定期进行专业估值审计都能令其受益。

如欲了解更多关于我们如何帮助贵公司提高价值与竞争力的信息，请随时通过我们的联系页面联络我们，或参加我们的估值研讨会。

同时我们很荣幸的宣布，GAO公司主管, 易赵薇(Chauwei Yak)，已获新加坡会计师公会卓越中心理事会委任为新加坡估价师及评估师学会会员。

如有任何公司股票问题需要咨询，请点击这里询问我们。

相关文章 :
1) 联合早报
2) 中国人民共和国商务部
3) 駐新加坡台北代表處（繁体）

Dispute Resolution Insights

Cryptocurrency lawsuits

To download a copy of this article in PDF. Please click here.

Who should be responsible for trading glitches?

In July 2017, London based electronic market maker B2C2 sued Singapore based bitcoin exchange operator Quoine over trades that were allegedly wrongly reversed.

B2C2, whose role as a market maker involves providing liquidity in cryptocurrencies, had placed seven orders for the sale of Ethereum (ETH) for Bitcoin (BTC) at an exchange rate of around 10BTC for 1 ETH on Quoine’s exchange. Those 7 orders were placed alongside 12,610 other orders from B2C2 which had been transacted at a price of around 0.04 BTC for 1 ETH.

The following day, Quoine unilaterally reversed the trade, stating that the trades were executed as the result of a system error. According to Quoine, at the time the trades were made, its ETH/BTC price quoter program had been affected by a technical glitch. Changes to encryption keys made on Quoine’s core systems were not implemented on the quoter, rendering it unable to access the ETH/BTC order book and set a correct market price.

Court documents noted that the orders would ordinarily not have been fulfilled as they were limit orders: exchange rates would not realistically have fluctuated wildly from 0.04BTC/1 ETH to 10BTC/ETH to let those trades go through. However, as a result of the trading glitch, the price quoter referenced the 7 orders placed by B2C2 as the market price and initiated stop loss orders on the leveraged positions of force-closed customers whose collateral had – as a result of the ‘new’ price – fallen below maintenance margins.

B2C2’s suit is for damages resulting from the reversal, which they claim was in breach of trust and denied them the ‘fruits of their advantageous transactions’.

The case is complex: the judge ruled that B2C2 has a prima facie case and that Quoine had demonstrated that it has two plausible routes for defence. B2C2’s application for summary judgement was dismissed and the case will proceed to the High Court. However, there are some key considerations which we feel will guide how the case will play out.

1. System Errors and Trading Glitches

While the trading of cryptocurrencies is relatively new, electronic trading systems are not. In 2005, a typing error caused one of Japan’s biggest brokerage firms, Mizuho Securities, to lose USD$225mil on a stock trade. A trader at Mizuho’s securities brokerage arm had tried to sell a share of J-Com Co. at ¥610,000 Yen (US$5,041) but had instead keyed in a trade of 610,000 shares for ¥1 each.

The sell order was for 42 times the J-Com’s outstanding shares, but the Tokyo Securities Exchange (TSE) processed it anyway, despite Mizuho’s attempts to cancel the order. Only later did TSE acknowledge that its system was at fault when Mizuho tried to cancel the order; its infrastructure had at the time been unable to keep up with increased trading volumes. According to an international trader quoted by the economist, “almost anywhere else in the world, an aberrant order would have been spotted and could have been de-keyed.”

As a result, Mizuho had to buy the shares it had effectively short-sold but did not own. It faced ¥40bn in losses as it was forced to settle in cash by the exchange’s clearing house, the Japan Securities Clearing Corporation, at a price of ¥912,000 per share. It subsequently filed a lawsuit against the TSE, and in 2009 was awarded damages of ¥10.7bn, with the Tokyo High Court stating that Mizuho ought to bear 30% of the responsibility for its losses.

Both the fat-fingered brokerage and the stock exchange whose system had failed to notice and reverse an impossible trade had to bear a share of the responsibility, with the presiding judge noting that “The TSE [was] responsible for failing to suspend overall stock trading promptly”. Could Quoine be held similarly accountable for its systems error? The case of B2C2 v Quoin, however, differs in how the point of contention is the exchange’s reversal of a trade which resulted from a systems error, and whether that was legal.

2. The Doctrine of Unilateral Mistake

Was Quoine within its rights to reverse the errant trade? Or was it responsible for the human mistake that resulted in the systems error?

B2C2’s case rests on the argument that the reversal constituted a breach of Quoine’s Terms and Conditions and thus was a breach of trust. According to the terms and conditions, “once an order is filled, [the user will be] notified via the Platform and such an action is irreversible”.

Quoine’s defense was twofold. First, it claimed it had the right to reverse the trades following incorporation of terms in a Risk Disclosure Statement. Its terms and conditions included a clause which provided it could change any terms, rights, obligations and privileges without notifying customers of such changes, while its Risk Disclosure Statement provided that “if [Quoine found] that a transaction took effect based on an aberrant value, [Quoine] may cancel the transaction”.

Second, Quoine argued that the trades were void because of a unilateral mistake at common law. Quoine’s lawyers put forth that regardless of how the high limit order price came to be offered, it “could not have represented a genuine offer to sell in a realistic market … [B2C2] must have known that the price was wholly out of line with all the other prices it had been seeking to trade at during that day”.

A large part of the future proceedings then, would pivot on the Doctrine of Unilateral Mistake. One landmark case was that of Chin Kin Keong et al v Digilandmall.com. In the case, the plaintiffs sought to sue the defendant for refusing to honour their orders of 1,606 laser printers, purchased at a price of $66 each and for a total price of $105,996, but with an actual market value of $6,189,524. The printers had been inadvertently listed at an incorrect price when an employee uploaded the contents of a training template onto Digiland’s commercial website.

The court ruled in Digiland’s favour; with the Doctrine of Unilateral mistake cited amongst the reasons for the judgement:

“… there are three possible types of mistake: common, mutual and unilateral. In common mistake, both parties make the same mistake. In mutual mistake, the parties misunderstand each other and are at crosspurposes. In unilateral mistake, only one of the parties is mistaken. The other knows, or must be taken to know, of his mistake. Where either mutual or unilateral mistake is pleaded, the very existence of agreement is denied. The argument is that, despite appearances, there is no real correspondence of offer and acceptance and that therefore the transaction must necessarily be void.

The claims of the plaintiffs were found to be “audacious, opportunistic and contrived”, in part because of their knowledge of the mispricing: “

If the price of a product is so absurdly low in relation to its known market value, it stands to reason that a reasonable man would harbour a real suspicion that the price may not be correct or that there may be some troubling underlying basis for such a pricing. He would make some basic enquiries to ascertain whether there is anything faulty with the product in an attempt to seek an explanation for or understanding of the basis for the price discrepancy … In such cases, where the purchaser has readily accessible means from the very same computer screen, to ascertain through a simple search whether a mistake has taken place, the onus could be upon him to exonerate himself of imputed knowledge of the mistake. Alternatively, knowledge may be readily inferred from what would be regarded as commonly known or notorious facts in the context of the transaction.”

Unilateral mistake to the terms of a contract, when one party is aware of it, results in the contract being void: either because the contract was never legally offered and accepted, or because there was no intention to create legal relations.

3. Machines trading with machines

If B2C2 was aware of the error when it made the trade then, its case against Quoine would be significantly weakened. A hitherto unaddressed question, however, is how B2C2 came to issue trades for Ethereum at 10BTC/ETH, 250x higher than its other trades at 0.04BTC/ETH. B2C2 claims the trades were placed automatically by its “proprietary system which seeks to quote prices which are at or near the best available prices on the Platform at a particular point in time”.

Here lies the complexity underlying this case: in Mizuho v Tokyo Stock Exchange, the errant order had been issued by a human broker. In B2C2 v Quoine however, it was a proprietary trading system which had placed the order. While the exact workings of this system are not yet clear, it raises questions regarding whether computer systems and software can have or constitute knowledge, and how their workings might relate to knowledge on behalf of their owners or programmers – up to this point largely undeveloped in contract law.

“It is crucial for the court to assess exactly how the 10 BTC/ETH rate was set, particularly how often the system attempts to make limit orders at these prices”, said Yi Yongjie, one of our experts at Gifted Group, and a former derivatives trader at JP Morgan with an M.A. in Financial Engineering from Cornell University.

For example, would the trades of systems built to arbitrage detect value dislocations as a result of software glitches or lags be considered void? What about systems programmed merely to exploit price dislocations as far as possible? Should programmers be held liable for the actions of the software they write, or the operators of such software, even if they leave it on autopilot? With the rise of high frequency trading, quantitative portfolio construction and artificial intelligence, the world we live in is one in which machines increasingly interact with their machine counterparts instead of humans and function without human input. We will have to wait till the case hits the courts before more details are revealed, but these are pertinent issues that will increasingly end up dominating the legal landscape.

4. Legal Clawbacks

In related news, cryptocurrency exchange OKEx recently had to engage in a socialized clawback after one of its clients took a large long position on 4,168,515 bitcoin futures, with a total value of US$400mn. When bitcoin’s value dropped, OKEx automatically liquidated the position after the user declined their request to lower the position. However, the question arises as to why OKEx’s risk management system had not flagged up the risky position or force-liquidated it earlier and had let the losses exceed the margin.

In this case, the losses resulting from the exchange’s system error was borne by other traders: OKEx’s social clawback mechanism was triggered, which allowed it to deflect the losses to traders with unrealized gains on their short positions, who are set to lose 18% of their profits.

Sources:
https://www.supremecourt.gov.sg/news/case-summaries/b2c2-ltd-v-quoine-pte-ltd

https://www.supremecourt.gov.sg/news/case-summaries/b2c2-ltd-v-quoine-pte-ltd

https://www.foxnews.com/story/typing-error-causes-225m-loss-at-tokyo-stock-exchange

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2005/12/14/please-may-i-take-it-back

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/07/24/business/tse-11-billion-fine-to-mizuho-upheld/

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Mizuho-Securities-sees-105m-lawsuit-windfall

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2006/10/18/business/mizuho-securities-to-sue-for-j-com-loss/

https://www.lawteacher.net/cases/chwee-kin-keong-v-digilandmall.php

https://www.coindesk.com/okex-confirms-9m-clawback-after-enormous-bitcoin-futures-position-fails

Featured

Dispute Resolution Insights: Working with lawyers.

The Gifted Group Method guides us in writing concise, evidence-based reports. Expert reports should be almost directly admissible as materials to be used in court. From our experiences with lawyers and Singapore Courts, we have refined our methodology to include 4 key aspects that make our reports clear and accessible to our clients.

  1. Past experiences

We draw from our past experiences and deep research to look for precedent legal cases that can be used as support. We also work closely with lawyers and their associates in order to present the most appropriate precedent cases for specific issues brought up in defenses. Additionally, as a known name in the financial industry, we learn of many financial events or transactions that we then draw on as possible precedents to a case.

2. Detail and transparency

Our valuation methodology is detailed and transparent. We aim to produce all intermediate workings, methods and assumptions in our reports, so our clients can fully understand the financial picture behind any case. Our models are always dis-aggregated into smaller operations that can be appropriately valued, and then recombined to produce an accurate final value. We draw heavily on our partners’ years of experiences at major investment banks to construct a working financial model that is conservative and representative of any business.

3. Industry standards

We understand these standards and draw on our knowledge to provide support for our assumptions and methods. For example, instead of using book value (used more in accounting and regulatory reporting), we tend to use the Market and Income-based Approaches to value ongoing businesses that require future assumptions. We are able to provide supporting documentation for our assumptions because we fully understand our industry and the authoritative writings that participants trust.

4. Language and formatting

Our reports are structurally adaptable to court documents such as affidavits. Because we receive feedback from our lawyers as to what we can improve on, we have been able to make great strides in drafting documents that our clients can easily adopt. A quick comparison between a report we wrote in 2017 and the actual affidavit used in court will reveal that over 90% of our report was used verbatim in the affidavit – with only minor formatting changes.

READ SAMPLE REPORT

 

Featured

Taking stock, assessing opportunities.

Takeaway: Accountants are a vital part of business functions, but are likely not the best choice for business valuation.

Over here at S2 Investments, most of the job requests we have can be broken down into two main categories:- transactional advisory services and business valuations.

In our firm’s transactional advisory practice, it is astounding the number of times clients have come knocking on my door to discuss the sale or divestment of their business and present me with a “Valuation Report” that has been prepared by their accountant or auditor.

What’s wrong with this, you say? Surely your accountant, given their knowledge of businesses along with their accounting skills backed by professional qualifications such as an ACCA or CPA, should be perfectly suited to valuing a business? Further to that, you might say that your accountant or auditor has innate knowledge of your business over the years, so who better to value your business than someone that has been running the numbers for you over the years?

The answer to the above questions based on the many “Valuation Reports” that I have perused over the years that have been produced by accountants and auditors is :- I would strongly disagree.

Many of the accountant or auditor produced “Valuation Reports” I’ve come across just doesn’t stack up at all. In fact, many of them are not valuation reports at all! 

They are simply a bunch of numbers neatly presented according to commonly accepted accounting standards (IFRS or GAAP) and sometimes they are accompanied by unsubstantiated calculations (e.g., 5X EBITDA = asking price). If your accountant or auditor has charged you for preparing a valuation report like this before, ask for a refund!

Your Accountant Doesn’t Sell Businesses

I am of the strong opinion that one of the most important pieces of knowledge a valuer should have is a keen understanding of the current marketplace conditions which are ever changing. A good valuer will have strong knowledge about what are the viable range of prices a buyer will pay for each corresponding business. In the end, a valuation report is useless if only the person the valuer and the client which is commissioning the report accepts the valuation stated.

As a case in point, I recall a recent accountant-produced valuation report for sale of a business, which stated that the valuation based on the book value of a particular printing company with all their assets was roughly 12M USD and the client was looking to us to help us find a buyer at that valuation. The client was absolutely convinced that 12M USD was a fair valuation. However, on further due diligence, we noted that the main asset which was valued at book value by the accountant was a leasehold building that had very restrictive covenants, amongst them one being on the change of ownership.

The valuation that the accountant produced and which the client paid a healthy five-figure sum for as there was many man hours spent on taking stock of the printing inventory was ultimately worthless. The accountant failed to distill the key values in the business and I can assure you that a business of this type would never transact in the marketplace for anything close to this — hence, the valuation report was a complete waste of money.

Your Accountant Most Likely Doesn’t Complete Valuations Very Often

Trust your accountant to do what they’re good at — let them calculate your EBITDA , or take stock of your present inventory value as in the former example, etc. Most accountants in Asia are also closely linked to company secretarial and book keeping work which is a specialty in itself, so unless your accountant is a specialist in business valuations, you should engage someone else to value your business. We would never offer to do book keeping and company secretarial services to our clients!

Unfortunately, many accountants in the hunt for fee revenue will take on engagements to complete business valuations, even though it is not their area of expertise, and not something they do very often.

This means a great deal of the accountant-produced valuation reports I’ve seen clearly demonstrate that the accountants responsible for them didn’t even pass Valuations 101. Just because an accountant promises that they can give you a high or low valuation for your business depending on your motivations, does not mean that this would be accepted by any other third party or in legal or arbitration proceedings. Why waste your money?

Your Accountant Is Not Independent

Many businesses and individuals have used the same accountant for years and years. Given the length of the relationship between client and accountant, accountants cease to be an independent, arm’s length advisor and instead become an advocate for their client. Most times, this works exceedingly well to the benefit of the client. However, when it comes to valuing your business, you should engage someone who can act at arm’s length and provide independent advice.

So Who Should You Engage to Value Your Business?

I’ve found the best business valuations are produced by practitioners who specialize in completing valuations. These practitioners have specialist knowledge and expertise in the field of business valuations, meaning their advice is grounded in experience and logic. If you needed heart surgery, you wouldn’t use your GP — you’d go to a specialist. The same applies to business valuations!

This is also why over here at S2 Investments, we tap on our network within GAO Group to staff specialists alongside our core execution team. If we are valuing a coal or iron mine, we will have a natural resource expert on the team who has transacted multiple deals before and are familiar with likely counterparties they might deal with such as SRK or SNC-Lavalin. Likewise, if we are valuing a consumer business, we will use a different expert to give deep insights and who understand the nuances of the consumer landscape. This ensures that the client gets the right information in a timely cost-efficient manner versus getting charged lots of man-hours for research.

Our sector experts alongside our core execution team, which has a well-rounded knowledge on the current state of the business sales marketplace, we know how different businesses are transacting in the marketplace, and on what prices and terms business buyers and sellers are completing transactions. Understanding the business sales marketplace is vital to producing logical and defensible valuations that stand up in the face of current market conditions.

So ask yourself this question: does your accountant or auditor tick all those boxes?

Contact us right away for our basic valuation package which will allow you to take a “health check for your company” to enable you to take stock, and assess opportunities today!

Footnote: To see the other options you have in getting your business valued, read this well-written article over at entrepreuner.com.  I would strongly recommend not going along the barbeque route!

Featured

Shopping around for the best help?

If you are not convinced yet that you need a team of ex-investment bankers with first hand experience in corporate advisory to help you sell your multi-million dollar business. Stop here.

You can go back and revisit why your local joe you met over a friend’s barbeque is unlikely to get you 20M for your business today or anytime ever.

If you are ready to get professional experienced help now, you might wonder why should you hire Gifted Group, versus other professionals or investment banks?